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Oil prices didn’t change much on Monday. On one hand, there’s hope that demand for oil will go up because factories in China are making more products. On the other hand, people are worried that the U.S. Federal Reserve might not lower interest rates at their meeting in December, which can affect oil demand.

Brent crude oil prices dropped just 1 cent to $71.83 a barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude went up 10 cents to $68.10. A private report showed that Chinese factories are doing better in November, which is good news for the economy. But there are also trade threats from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

In the Middle East, a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon seems shaky. Israel announced on Monday it was attacking targets in Lebanon after both sides blamed each other for breaking the ceasefire. Despite some problems, the U.S. Pentagon reported that the ceasefire is mostly holding.

Traders are also keeping an eye on Syria, worried that the ongoing issues there could lead to more problems in the region and affect oil supply. Last week, oil prices dropped more than 3% due to easing worries about supply from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and predictions of more oil than needed in 2025, even with planned output cuts.

OPEC+, a group of oil-producing countries, has postponed their next meeting to December 5, where they’ll talk about delaying an oil production increase planned for January. If they postpone this increase, it could help prevent oil prices from falling further.

Money managers are being cautious and want to see how the new Trump administration’s policies will affect the market, as well as what OPEC+ decides regarding oil supply.

On top of all this, the Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he is still deciding whether to cut interest rates in December. Higher interest rates can make it more expensive to borrow money, which can slow down the economy and decrease oil demand.

Additionally, the U.S. dollar is getting stronger. Trump recently threatened to impose 100% tariffs on countries in the BRICS group, unless they agree not to create a new currency that could replace the dollar. A stronger dollar means that oil, which is priced in dollars, becomes more expensive for people using other currencies, leading to less demand.

A judge in Delaware has ruled that Tesla cannot give Elon Musk a huge $56 billion payment for his work as CEO, even though many Tesla shareholders said they supported it. After the judge’s decision in January, Musk told Tesla’s board he wants a new pay package that’s almost as big. He also mentioned on social media that he might want more shares in Tesla or could think about making new products with his other companies, like SpaceX and Neuralink.

Can Tesla Appeal?
Musk and Tesla might decide to appeal the judge’s ruling, trying to change the decision at the Delaware Supreme Court. This process usually takes about a year. The case is unique and has some tricky legal details because Musk, even with only about 22% of Tesla’s shares, was seen as controlling the pay discussions.

Creating a New Pay Plan
Tesla’s board could come up with a new pay package, but it could be very costly. The original deal from 2018 gave Musk stock options that would only be valuable if Tesla met high goals—and Tesla did meet those goals, causing the stock to rise a lot. The company said that making a new plan that costs as much as the original might need to be more than 90% smaller.

Bringing Back the Old Plan?
Tesla could just give Musk the same stock options from 2018 again, but doing so might cause other problems. If shareholders want to challenge this decision, they would have to take the matter to Texas courts, as the company moved its headquarters. However, returning to the old plan would lead to a massive $25 billion charge for Tesla. This money would also be taxed heavily when Musk uses the options, resulting in a potential 57% tax rate.

Could They Settle?
Musk might think about settling the lawsuit brought by a Tesla shareholder and accept less money, but this goes against his usual strategy of fighting cases in court.

In November, trading in stocks and their related options fell sharply because many investors felt unsure about the market. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) introduced new rules to help protect investors from high-risk trading in futures and options. These changes aimed to reduce speculation, which is when people try to make quick profits without properly understanding the risks involved.

Here’s what happened:

– Options Trading: The turnover (total money traded) in options, which many individual traders like, dropped by almost 16% in November. This was the steepest monthly drop in over four years. The total amount traded in options fell to ₹333.4 lakh crore, the lowest number since May 2024.

– Futures Trading: Trading in futures on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) also declined by 8.3%. The total for futures trading went down to ₹1.71 lakh crore, the lowest seen since December 2023.

– Stock Market Volumes: The overall daily trading volume in cash stocks fell by 6.23% to ₹1.07 lakh crore, which is the lowest since March 2024.

These changes come after Sebi noticed many retail traders (individual investors) were losing money—around ₹1.81 lakh crore from FY22 to FY24. New rules also limited the number of futures and options contracts traders can use each week and increased the minimum size for index contracts from ₹5 lakh to ₹15 lakh.

Experts believe that the new regulations, along with a drop in the market, have made investors more cautious. For instance, since September 27, the Nifty index (a major stock index) fell by 7.3%.

With the new contract sizes going up, trading volumes may fall even more. For example, the NSE increased the Nifty lot size from 25 to 75 shares, making it more expensive to participate.

Many in the market are waiting for a clearer direction, especially with upcoming U.S. elections.

Overall, the recent downturn and new regulations are causing investors to step back, and many are likely looking for safer bets before jumping back in.

On Monday, the Biden administration announced new rules to restrict advanced technology sales to China. These rules aim to stop China from making powerful computer chips used in military tools and artificial intelligence. The new restrictions include stopping the sale of special types of chips and machinery to China and adding over 140 Chinese companies to a trade blacklist.

This marks the third major update in three years to control China’s access to advanced tech. National security officials believe that allowing China to build these chips could be a danger to the U.S. because they could be used in cyberattacks or military weapons.

These new rules are expected to be among the last big changes before the upcoming presidential transition to Donald Trump. The Biden administration hopes these measures will help slow down China’s tech progress as part of its legacy.

The updated rules include banning sales of advanced memory chips to China and establishing worldwide restrictions on many types of chip-making equipment, starting December 31. U.S. companies will also have new guidelines to check the factories they sell to in China. However, some believe that the regulations have been influenced by industry lobbying and that there are exceptions that might benefit U.S. sellers.

Asian stock markets went up after good news from Wall Street, where top technology companies helped stocks reach new highs. Japan and South Korea saw their stock indexes rise, and Australian shares also went up. Futures for Hong Kong and the US markets stayed steady. Now, all eyes are on upcoming financial reports and comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which will help us understand what might happen with interest rates.

The S&P 500, a big US stock index, hit another record high for the year, while the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 gained over 1%. The US dollar ended its three-day drop after President-elect Donald Trump warned nations in the BRICS group about their economies. Meanwhile, French stocks and bonds faced pressure as the euro dropped by 1.1% due to political issues in the country.

Traders are preparing for a busy week of important economic data, especially Friday’s jobs report, which is expected to show an increase in US hiring after problems from hurricanes and a major strike. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak, and investors are hoping for updates about the job market and inflation.

This week is really important for economic data, according to Tom Essaye from The Sevens Report. If the news is positive, it could lead to a gentle slowdown in the economy and a potential interest rate cut in December. Currently, the S&P 500 increased by 0.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 rose by 1.1%. Tesla Inc. saw a drop in after-hours trading after a judge rejected a huge pay package for its CEO, Elon Musk. The Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.3%, and Treasury yields increased.

In a move aimed at limiting China’s tech advancements, the US announced new restrictions on China’s access to important parts needed for chips and AI. These new rules could impact companies like SK Hynix and Samsung in South Korea, as well as Micron Technology in the US.

Chinese investors are anxious for signs of government help to boost their struggling economy, especially since there was no update after a major meeting of the Communist Party. They are looking forward to the upcoming Politburo gathering, which usually focuses on economic issues.

In Europe, political tensions are rising as Marine Le Pen has threatened to bring down Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government due to budget disagreements.

Back on Wall Street, the mood is optimistic. Fed’s Waller mentioned he might support a rate cut later this month, which is in contrast to concerns from a year ago when many feared a tough 2024 for the economy and stock market. A lot of people now believe the stock market will end the year strong.

Experts suggest we are in a “Goldilocks” zone, where the economy is good enough to support company earnings but also weak enough to allow for rate cuts. December historically brings good market performance, especially when stocks have done well earlier in the year.

According to Bespoke Investment Group, when the S&P 500 is up more than 20% through November, it usually gains about 1.77% in December.