Author: Sarita Jena

Indranil Pan, Chief Economist at Yes Bank, shares his views on India’s economy. He believes that in the coming months, we need to closely watch how global prices for things we buy affect our economy, especially with potential new tariffs coming up. Pan suggests that our growth forecast is even lower than others expect, sitting at about 6.2% for the year. The manufacturing sector, which produces goods, has slowed down significantly, growing only 2.2% in the last quarter. This slowdown is also reflected in how the stock market is performing.

He highlights the impact of a weaker Indian currency, which makes production more expensive for manufacturers. Without increased local spending and amidst a slowdown in global demand, he expects production in manufacturing to stay low.

Pan also mentions the government’s spending, indicating there’s been less investment this year. He feels that rather than simply boosting consumer spending through the budget, the focus should be on building infrastructure and encouraging private investments.

When asked about when India might see a recovery in GDP, Pan notes that although the services sector is doing better than the goods sector, urban demand isn’t recovering quickly. He points to higher vegetable prices limiting what people can spend on other things. With inflation high, real wage growth for workers is lagging, reducing potential spending on non-essential items.

Looking forward, Pan sees the upcoming government budget as crucial. He doesn’t expect a significant focus on increasing consumer spending but sees a need for a strong emphasis on infrastructure investment. Additionally, he believes there should be more focus on creating jobs and skills development as this will help boost productivity and, eventually, consumer demand.

For this year, Pan anticipates a GDP growth of 6.2% and a nominal growth of about 9.8%. Next year, he expects to see a bit of growth at 6.6%, hoping for more government spending which can improve the overall economic situation. The expectation is that inflation will ease, which should help real wages grow and lead to better economic conditions.

Indranil Pan, the Chief Economist at Yes Bank, shared his thoughts on India’s economy. He believes the growth might not be as strong as expected. Most experts think the country’s growth will be around 6.4% to 6.8%, but Pan thinks it will be lower at about 6.2%.

His main worry is about the manufacturing sector, which had a slowdown in the second quarter of the year. Global prices and currency changes are affecting how much it costs to make products in India. If there isn’t a solid growth in what people buy, and if the world economy slows down, production in the manufacturing sector could stay weak.

Pan also mentioned that government spending isn’t strong enough. He thinks focusing on building infrastructure (like roads and bridges) is more important than just boosting personal consumption. While agriculture is doing okay, many farmers are still buying food from the market, usually at higher prices, which affects how much they can spend on other things.

As for the future, Pan feels the recovery will take a while. The services sector is doing better than the goods sector, but he’s unsure about how quickly urban demand will pick up. He believes it will take time for inflation to lower to around 4%, which could help wages increase and boost spending.

Looking ahead to the union budget next month, Pan thinks it should focus on increasing infrastructure spending instead of just trying to push consumption. He wants the government to pay attention to employment and skills, as this will help more people work and improve income growth.

For this financial year, Pan predicts a GDP growth of 6.2% and nominal growth (including prices) of about 10%. Next year, he expects the real growth to be 6.6% and nominal growth to be around 9.5%. He believes these figures will improve if the government invests in infrastructure and if the Reserve Bank of India helps ease monetary policies.

Vinay Rajani from HDFC Securities shared his thoughts on the Nifty index. He noted that there’s strong support at 23,460, which is the last low point. This means that if you are buying Nifty stocks, you should set your stop-loss at this level.

Currently, both Nifty and Bank Nifty are trading within a narrow range. The recent rise in prices is mainly due to short covering, which happens when traders buy back the stocks they had sold short. Rajani mentioned that even though the Nifty has gained 110 points recently, it is just a small bounce back from a previous drop.

He indicated that while the main indices may stay stable or move sideways, some individual stocks are performing well. Sectors like healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and some auto industries are showing good movements. Rajani highlighted that stocks like UPL, Chambal Fertilisers, and Navin Fluorine have been showing promising signs. He advised to look for stocks that can succeed even when the overall market isn’t moving much.

For Bank Nifty, he pointed out that there’s strong resistance between 50,500 and 50,600, which might limit its upside. He encouraged looking for stocks that outperform during this period.

On Specific Stocks:

Rajani discussed UPL and Navin Fluorine, noting their recovery over the last few days. He suggested that they have a solid setup but may need a correction before moving higher. For those interested, he recommended buying these stocks on dips.

Turning to Reliance, he noted that the stock is struggling but still has potential, especially with rising crude oil prices. He expressed a cautious optimism, suggesting a stop-loss at 1,200 for those holding Reliance shares.

Recommendations:

Rajani offered two stock picks:
1. Narayana Hrudayalaya (NH): This hospital stock is looking strong. Buy it around 1,349, with a stop-loss at 1,320 and a target of 1,425.
2. Pfizer: This pharmaceutical company looks good too. Buy it around 5,360, with a stop-loss at 5,200 and a target of 5,600.

Mobikwik Systems, the company behind the popular fintech app Mobikwik, reported a loss of Rs 3.3 crore in the September quarter of this financial year. This is a big change from a year ago when it made a profit of Rs 5.9 crore. The company’s earnings from business increased by 43% to Rs 289 crore, up from Rs 201 crore during the same time last year.

This news is special because it is Mobikwik’s first financial report since it went public on December 18, 2024. The company started trading at Rs 440 per share, which was 58% higher than its initial price of Rs 279. As of 12:30 PM on January 7, Mobikwik shares were trading at Rs 567.

However, Mobikwik’s expenses went up a lot in the September quarter. The cost of processing payments, which it has to pay to banks for handling transactions, nearly tripled to Rs 137 crore from Rs 42 crore last year. The money it spent on employee salaries also increased from Rs 25 crore to Rs 42 crore.

In a recent announcement, Mobikwik explained that it made an arrangement with one of its lending partners, allowing it to give up Rs 24.2 crore in expected income in exchange for waiving certain fees of Rs 42 crore for services in the last two quarters.

Mobikwik has about 167 million registered users and 4.4 million merchants using the platform. It processed a total of Rs 28,275 crore in payments. In the September quarter, it gave out Rs 1,630 crore in loans but has slowed down lending compared to Rs 2,200 crore in the prior quarter. The slowdown in loans affected its financial service revenue, which dropped to Rs 103 crore from Rs 136 crore last year.

In Budget 2025, the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) is asking for a change that will help Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) with their taxes. They want to set a single tax rate of 10% on money taken from mutual funds, like dividends and capital gains. This will make it easier for NRIs and mutual funds to handle taxes.

Currently, when NRIs earn money from mutual funds, they pay a tax called TDS (Tax Deducted at Source). The tax rates for NRIs can be confusing because they depend on how much money a person makes in a year, which can range from 10% to 37%. Plus, there’s an additional 4% charge called Health and Education Cess.

But there’s a problem: mutual funds don’t always know how much money an NRI has made when they are required to take out the taxes. This makes it tough for them to decide the right rate to apply. Because of this uncertainty, some mutual funds charge the highest rate of 37%, while others try to guess. This inconsistency hurts NRIs and creates confusion.

AMFI believes that by having a clear 10% rate for everyone, it will make things simpler for mutual funds and help NRI investors. This way, there will be no surprise costs and everyone will know what to expect.

In today’s trading, shares of Marico Ltd. went up by 0.37% around 11:51 AM IST. The stock opened at Rs 647.95, reaching a high of Rs 654.30 and a low of Rs 644.00 during the day. Over the past year, the highest price for the stock was Rs 719.80, while the lowest was Rs 486.75. So far, about 6,791 shares have been traded today.

In the broader market, the Nifty50 index rose by 130.25 points, landing at 23,746.3, while the BSE Sensex climbed by 303.58 points, reaching 78,268.57.

Looking at Marico’s sales, for the three months ending September 30, 2024, the company made sales of Rs 2,746 crore. That’s an increase of 2.46% from the previous quarter and 9.23% compared to the same time last year. They also made a profit of Rs 423 crore in the latest quarter.

When it comes to who owns Marico, the promoters have a 59.2% share, while Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) own 24.87% and Mutual Funds (MFs) hold 4.92%.

Technical Insights:
On the charts, Marico’s 200-Day Moving Average (DMA) is at Rs 622.67, and the 50-DMA is at Rs 630.99. If the stock stays above both averages, it shows a positive trend. But if it falls below these averages, it signals a negative trend. If it trades between these averages, the stock’s future direction is uncertain.

Many companies are sending emails to their workers asking them to provide proof of any tax-saving investments or expenses. If you want to save on taxes, it’s crucial to send these proofs quickly! If you don’t, your company will deduct the full amount of tax from your salary without considering your possible savings.

At the beginning of the financial year, your employer tries to estimate how much tax you will owe based on your full salary. If you tell them about your planned tax-saving investments, they can adjust the tax deductions each month. But, in the last quarter of the financial year (between January and March), you need to send your final proof of these investments. If you don’t, your employer will withhold full tax from your salary.

Employees who choose the old tax method must submit proof to claim tax benefits. If you’re on the new tax method, you don’t need to show any proof since most tax-saving options aren’t available in this plan.

Here are some common things you need to submit proof for if you’re on the old tax method:

a) House Rent Allowance (HRA): If you pay rent, you must show your rent agreement and rent receipts. If you pay more than Rs 1 lakh in rent in a year, you also need your landlord’s PAN.

b) Section 80C Deductions: You can deduct up to Rs 1.5 lakh from your total income for eligible investments. These include things like PPF, EPF, ELSS mutual funds, life insurance, and school fees.

c) Health Insurance: You can claim up to Rs 1 lakh for health insurance premiums for yourself and your parents.

d) Home Loan Interest: If you’re paying off a home loan, you can claim a deduction of up to Rs 2 lakh on the interest amount.

e) NPS Contribution: You can also claim an extra Rs 50,000 for investing in the National Pension System (NPS).

If you’re on the new tax method, you don’t need to provide proof since it doesn’t allow many deductions. But, you can still claim a standard deduction of Rs 75,000 and up to 14% of your basic salary for your employer’s contribution to your NPS.

You can switch between tax methods at the time of filing your tax return, but it might be difficult to change it during the financial year if your company doesn’t allow it.

Remember, if you don’t send your investment proofs to your employer, they will deduct full tax amounts from your salary. You can still claim deductions when you file your tax return later, but some deductions, like Leave Travel Allowance, must be processed through your employer. Submitting your proofs on time helps you avoid paying extra taxes and reduces chances of future tax-related troubles.