Nifty Index January Trends: What to Expect in 2025!

In January, bears (those who think the market will go down) usually have the advantage on D-Street, which is a nickname for the stock market. Over the past 10 years, the Nifty index has ended lower seven times. This drop often happens because foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are selling off many shares. From 2015 to 2024, FIIs sold more stocks than they bought six times. The average return for January over the last decade is only 0.38%.

The Nifty index had some positive days in January during 2015, 2017, and 2018, with gains of 6.35%, 4.59%, and 4.72%, respectively. The biggest drop was in 2016 when it fell by 4.82%, and in 2021, it dropped by 2.48%. In the other recent years (2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024), the losses were smaller, ranging from just 0.03% to 2.45%.

Looking at FIIs and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) over the last few years, there was a large sell-off. In January 2022, FIIs sold stocks worth Rs 33,303 crore, and they continued to sell in 2023 and 2024, offloading shares worth Rs 28,852 crore and Rs 25,744 crore, respectively. They also sold a lot in 2016, 2017, and 2019. However, in 2015, 2020, and 2021, they bought more stocks, totaling Rs 12,919 crore, Rs 12,123 crore, and Rs 19,473 crore, respectively.

On the other hand, domestic investors (DIIs) have been net buyers in January seven times and sold only three times. In January 2023, they bought stocks worth Rs 33,412 crore, while in 2024 they spent Rs 26,744 crore. In 2022, they bought Rs 21,928 crore. From 2016 to 2019, DIIs also bought shares but had some selling years in 2015, 2020, and 2021.

Looking ahead to January 2025, many experts feel it will be a quiet month for the stock market. The Nifty index has often ended lower 70% of the time during January. The Nifty Bank has had mixed results. Experts believe the Nifty may struggle to go beyond the 24,350 mark and might keep going down unless more foreign investors start buying again.

Nuvama, a financial firm, is optimistic about certain stocks like Coforge and Paytm. They also think Zomato, a popular food delivery company, will rise. However, they see potential trouble for the IT sector, especially for companies like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Mphasis.

Deepak Ramaraju, a Senior Fund Manager, thinks the stock market will do well because of strong economic growth and efforts to improve infrastructure and technology. He believes industries like capital goods, technology, finance, consumer goods, and healthcare will perform well. New areas like semiconductors, electronics, renewable energy, and electric vehicles are also expected to get more attention.

(Data Inputs from Ritesh Presswala)

(Disclaimer: The opinions and suggestions provided by experts are their own views and do not reflect the opinions of thellv.news)