Marine Le Pen Banned: What’s Next for the 2027 French Elections?

Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party, has been banned from running for political office for five years. This comes after a Paris court found her guilty of stealing €4.1 million in European Union (EU) funds. The ruling was made on March 31, 2025, and it has severely impacted her plans to run for president in 2027.

The court gave her a four-year prison sentence, but she won’t have to serve all of it in jail—two years are on hold, and she will be under house arrest for the rest of the term. Additionally, she was fined €100,000 (about $108,000), and her party had to pay a fine of €2 million for its involvement in the wrongdoing.

Le Pen and 20 members of her party were found guilty of taking EU money meant for parliamentary assistants and using it to pay for party staff in France. This scheme lasted for 11 years, from 2006 to 2017, and involved €4.1 million being used to pay her personal assistant and bodyguard, among others. The judge said that Le Pen’s actions were a “serious attack” on democracy and could “create public unrest.”

What does this mean for the presidential race in 2027? Le Pen was seen as the main competitor to President Emmanuel Macron, so her disqualification opens up the contest for other candidates. Jordan Bardella, who leads the National Rally now, is likely to take her place. However, he doesn’t have the same connection with voters that Le Pen had.

Le Pen’s niece, Marion Maréchal, who is also in the far-right political scene, was upset about the ruling, claiming that her aunt just wanted to lead the right to victory.

Le Pen’s conviction has sparked political unrest, with many supporting her and accusing the judges of being unfair. Leaders from the far-right across Europe, including Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Italy’s Matteo Salvini, have shown their support for her. Protests could occur, as her supporters publicly express their anger.

Le Pen has the option to appeal the ruling, but experts believe it’s going to be tough to lift the five-year ban on her running for office. Even if her prison sentence changes, the ban might still stay.

With Le Pen out, Jordan Bardella will lead the National Rally in the election, but he may not have the same charm. Marion Maréchal is a rising figure too, but her ties to a rival party make things complicated.

If Le Pen’s ban stays, she could return to politics in 2032. However, the far-right might become weaker in her absence. Her supporters hope she can make a comeback, but it will be hard.

Le Pen’s ban has sent shockwaves through French politics. The far-right is now without a strong leader, and the future of the elections looks uncertain. Protests and political turbulence could follow, affecting not just France, but Europe too.