A newly found asteroid called 2024 YR4 has scientists paying close attention. The European Space Agency (ESA) recently updated its risk assessment, now saying there is a 2.2% chance this asteroid could hit Earth on December 22, 2032. Just a week earlier, they estimated a lower chance of 1.2%. As astronomers gather more data, these numbers might change.
Discovery and Initial Observations
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first spotted by the ATLAS telescope in Chile on December 27, 2024. ATLAS is part of NASA’s program designed to find near-Earth objects. Because the asteroid seemed risky, it was put on ESA’s and NASA’s lists on December 31. Since January, many observatories, including one in New Mexico and the Very Large Telescope in Chile, have kept track of it. Right now, it is more than 45 million kilometers away from Earth and moving further into space. It can be seen until early April, but it will disappear until 2028. If scientists can’t rule out the chance of impact by then, it will stay on the risk list.
Size and Potential Impact
Scientists think the asteroid is between 40 and 90 meters wide, about the size of a large building. However, they are still unsure of its exact size. Dr. Paul Chodas from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies explained that finding the asteroid’s size is tricky and requires more observations. If it were going to hit Earth, the damage could extend up to 50 kilometers from the impact site, especially because it would be traveling very fast—around 17 kilometers per second.
Historical Context: Similar Asteroid Events
Asteroids this size hit Earth every few thousand years. One famous incident is the Tunguska event in 1908 when a 30-meter-wide asteroid exploded over Siberia, flattening trees in a huge area. Another recent event was in 2013 when a smaller 20-meter-wide asteroid exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, causing damage to thousands of buildings and injuring many people.
Ongoing Monitoring and Risk Mitigation
Space agencies like NASA and ESA are closely observing the asteroid. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), backed by the United Nations, and another group called the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) are working to assess the asteroid’s risk. IAWN is in charge of tracking the asteroid, while SMPAG is looking into ways to protect us if it becomes a real threat.
Dr. Davide Farnocchia from NASA mentioned, “It’s too early to talk about protecting against the asteroid. Right now, we just need to keep observing 2024 YR4 to get better data.” If we find out it still poses a risk later, we might consider possible solutions, like redirecting it or helping people evacuate. But for now, our main focus is on tracking the asteroid.
NASA and ESA are always watching thousands of near-Earth asteroids, but smaller ones are harder to detect. Luckily, new technology and missions will improve how we track them. Scientists will continue their study of 2024 YR4, with the next big review happening in late April or early May. If we still can’t tell where it’s going after that, we’ll check again when it becomes visible in 2028. Until then, experts believe they will get enough information to rule out a collision.
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