Recent research from a group of 32 climate scientists shows that climate change has made wildfires in Los Angeles 35% more likely than they would have been without human-caused warming. The scientists found that the hot, dry, and windy weather that leads to these fires is getting worse because of the burning of oil, gas, and coal.
If global warming reaches 2.6°C, these dangerous fire conditions could become 35% more likely by the end of the century. Over the past years, there has been less rainfall between October and December, making dry conditions 2.4 times more common compared to the climate before industrial activities began. The fire season now lasts about 23 extra days every year, raising the chances of fires during the strong Santa Ana winds.
Clair Barnes, a researcher from the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, emphasized that climate change is increasing the risk of serious wildfires. Droughts are now more common in winter, which can lead to big fires when the Santa Ana winds blow.
John Abatzoglou, a climatology professor at the University of California, Merced, called these recent wildfires a “perfect storm” of climate and weather problems. These fires are among the most destructive in Los Angeles history, with 28 lives lost, thousands of homes destroyed, and an estimated $27.2 billion in insured losses. Total damages could exceed $250 billion.
The longer drought conditions and hotter temperatures mean plants are drying out and becoming easier to burn. Researchers pointed out that if countries keep emitting greenhouse gases, global temperatures could rise by 3.1°C from pre-industrial levels.
In November, the US announced plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 61-66% by 2035 to help combat climate change. However, this plan is currently not available on the White House website. New climate commitments from countries, including the US, are due by February to help limit global warming to 1.5°C.
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