Lebanon has not had a president for over two years, and the parliament is set to vote for one on Thursday. This comes during a time of big changes in the region, especially with the war between Israel and Hezbollah, and the fall of Syria’s leader, Bashar al-Assad. The president’s seat, which is meant for a Maronite Christian, has been empty since Michel Aoun’s term ended in October 2022.
So far, no group in the 128-seat parliament can agree on a candidate because they don’t have enough support. The vote will test the power balance in Lebanon since Hezbollah, which helped Aoun become president in 2016, has weakened from the recent war.
Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement, are now open to choosing a president who is less controversial than their previous choice, Suleiman Frangieh. Some of the main candidates being discussed include General Joseph Aoun, who leads the army and seems to have the support of the U.S.; Jihad Azour, a senior official at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and former finance minister; and Major-General Elias al-Baysari, who oversees state security.
Lebanon’s Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati expressed optimism about electing a new president. A French minister also stated that this election is important for Lebanon’s peace and recovery. However, two sources and an expert mentioned that it’s not guaranteed that any candidate will actually get enough votes.
To win, a candidate must have 86 votes in the first round or 65 in the second. French and Saudi envoys have been speaking with Lebanese officials, highlighting international interest in this election.
General Aoun would need a special amendment to be elected since he is still an active military leader. Though some Hezbollah officials say they don’t have a problem with Aoun, other sources say they will not back him. Recently, Hezbollah has been trying to get support for Lebanon after losing its connection with Iran due to Assad’s fall.
Lebanon has been struggling since its financial crisis in 2019 and needs outside help to recover. Nabil Boumonsef, a newspaper editor, thinks a president can only be elected if Hezbollah and its allies agree on Aoun or Azour. If they push for their preferred candidate, it could lead to more problems in Lebanon.
In the past, Saudi Arabia was an important player in Lebanon, but they feel their role has been diminished by Iran and Hezbollah. The Saudi Minister stated in October that outside countries should not tell Lebanon what to do.
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